The Market Apprentice

New Long Positions

2007-02-13T21:03:00.000-05:00

Wildcat Fund now overweight technology, consumer staples, and financials. We also have a sizeable portion invested in healthcare…what you might call a contrarian bet.

Read the rest of this entry at Investor's Paradise

-The Apprentice

Some investments are beyond risky....right?

2007-02-06T20:57:00.000-05:00

I will preface this post by saying that although I base my own personal investing strategy on William O’Neil’s CANSLIM method, I do not subscribe solely to this idea. The most important thing I have found is that you need to develop a sound investment strategy and stay disciplined. Bears make money and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

Read the rest of this entry on my official blog at http://www.investorsparadise.com/atkins-investment/

-The Apprentice

Big Day for Wildcat Fund, Bigger Day for Oil

2007-01-30T21:13:00.000-05:00

The Wildcat Fund enjoyed another stellar performance on Tuesday gaining 1.39% overall. The Fed began their two-day meeting and volume eased on the major indices. Our final line ended green across the board: Dow +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.31%, S&P 500 +0.58%.

It seemed fitting that as Oil gained 5.5% on the day our main subject was the Energy sector. Our student analysts proposed to sell all of our shares of Encana (ECA) and Arch Coal (ACI) based on short-term corporate outlooks and lower overall energy prices. ACI was mainly an alternative energy play, but when oil is $55 vs. $75 is there really any incentive to look for alternatives? Overall, we decided to underweight the sector and explore better possibilities - a simple case of opportunity cost. The vote to sell Encana was almost unanimous and a final decision on Arch Coal will be made on Thursday.

The group then voted to purchase shares of Exco Resources (XCO) which is currently trading around $16.77. Perhaps not all IBD investors will be sold, but there were several other things besides their sales (95% 3-yr rate) and revenue (64% quarterly) growth that we considered. XCO is currently engaged in several different takeover bids and employs a unique debt exit strategy. As one of our analysts pointed out, assets are cheaper to purchase on wall street right now vs. exploring for them and Exco is taking full advantage of that strategy. We also feel that management has a vested interest in the performance of the stock price as insiders hold approximately 22% of shares outstanding. XCO also increases our small to mid cap exposure which have been leading the way year to date.

More detailed research reports on all of our BUY proposals including valuations will be available once our group website is up and running. Stay tuned....

The biggest mover of the day was Zimmer Holdings (ZMH, +5.92%) which released earnings of $1.02/share vs. street expectations of $0.99/share. Other notable movers on the day included Ventas (VTR, +1.57%) and China Mobile (CHL, +4.67%) which was highlighted in IBD's Markets Desk recap. I am very pleased with the recent peformance of the Wildcat Fund and our shift in asset allocation. I am confident that come May we will be outperforming our benchmark, the S&p 500, by a landslide.

Other updates to post later this week....

Enjoy!

The Apprentice

Stocks End Mixed, Cap Week With Losses

2007-01-28T21:34:00.000-05:00

Friday was a mixed day for the stock market amidst strong economic data. Durable goods orders increased by 3.1% and new-home sales rose 4.8%, the highest mark since April. Despite the bullish economic data, the major indices ended relatively flat with the Nasdaq up o.05% and the Dow and S&P 500 losing o.12%.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for this Wednesday, January 31. Expect the Fed to close out the month by leaving interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight time, at 5.25%. Lower energy prices have acted a rate cut by themselves and I expect that considering Friday's bullish report and the recent earnings outlooks, the Fed will maintain their "wait and see" approach.

Updates on the Wildcat Fund will be posted by Tuesday night. Our next meeting is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon and will feature some new BUY proposals. I will post meeting minutes as well as our rationale for all decisions.

Happy Trading!

The Apprentice

Dow reaches new high while techs surge

2007-01-24T23:36:00.000-05:00

Stocks stormed ahead on Wednesday amid strong earnings reports from the technology sector. Positive news from Yahoo and Sun Microsystems helped push the major indices higher as the Nasdaq surged on heavier trade. At the end of the day it stood 1.43% higher as the Dow and S&P 500 rose 0.70% and 0.85%, respectively.

The Wildcat Fund enjoyed an even stronger gain than yesterday rising 1.20%. All but two holdings finished higher on the day with the technology and telecommunications stocks leading the way. As we know, 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general market, so a bullish performance like today can certainly make my job easier.

China Mobile (CHL) continues to outperform and was up an additional 2.39%. I am very pleased that one of our few international holdings has performed so well thus far. Other big movers on the day included America Movil (AMX, +3.14%) and Berkley (BER, +2.61%). Under Armour (UA, +2.71%) closed at $50.75 and some analysts are setting $65 price targets. From a fundamental standpoint (the one that truly matters) this company has become an industry leader with strong earnings growth fueled by increasing sales. I expect their Feb. 1 earnings report to exceed expectations considering their successful track record and overall healthy holiday spending season.

Stocks on our watchlist will be posted soon. Stay tuned for more and see you at Investor's Paradise!

The Apprentice

Wildcat Fund gains 1.04%

2007-01-23T22:48:00.000-05:00

Stocks made somewhat of a comeback on Tuesday with small caps leading the way. Unfortunately, an afternoon sell-off erased most of the overall gains but any day in green is a positive. We rounded out today's trading session with the Dow gaining 0.46% and S&P 500 adding 0.35%, while the Nasdaq ended flat.

The Wildcat Fund enjoyed a great day with a gain of 1.04%. Stocks that had suffered Monday responded by scoring lofty gains on increased volume. Under Armour (UA) and Vasco Data Securities (VDSI) regained some steam up 4.95% and 4.66% respectively. China Mobile (CHL) gapped up an additional 5.03% on the day while Boeing (BA) jumped 2.06%, shrugging off Wachovia's downgrade from yesterday.

Our energy holdings Encana (ECA) and Conoco Phillips (COP) fared well thanks to a $2.46 spike in oil prices. Next week our energy analysts will be presenting and I am interested to hear their take on where oil is headed now that we have touched below the $50/barrel level.

Today's meeting our group discussed the proposal of selling off some of Vasco Data Securities. There was some opposition however, as many analysts believed the company fundamentals and reasons we bought the stock have not changed. A final decision will be made Thursday on whether or not to sell off 40 shares or hold onto our entire position.

Microsoft (MSFT) will be releasing earnings this Thursday and I am interested to see the effect their results will have on other technology stocks. We are currently overweight the sector, but if earnings and outlooks continue to disappoint that money will fare better in the consumer staples or even utility sector. Even though the Atkins Investment Group follows a "bottoms-up" approach to security selection, I feel it is benefical as portfolio manager to also employ a more macroeconomic, top-down analysis of which sectors are in position to perform best. By the end of this week I hope to have a better outlook for our asset allocation for the remainder of the semester.

Happy Trading!

The Apprentice

Stocks Fall, But Volume Eases

2007-01-22T23:21:00.000-05:00

As earnings continue to trickle in, stocks continue to decline. The major indices were red across the board, but we avoided another distribution day as volume eased. Today's trading session finished with the Nasdaq down 0.83%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and the Dow slipping 0.70%.

The Wildcat Fund gave up 0.83% on the day. Big movers included Boeing (BA) which lost 3.42% after a downgrade by Wachovia. Under Armour (UA) also dropped big giving up 7.81%. A "negative industry article" was cited as one of the possible reasons.

Stocks on the upside included Amgen (AMGN), China Mobile (CHL), and ITC Holdings (ITC). All three holdings have fared well since we began trading on 9/1/06, with gains of 11.49%, 9.41%, and 25.56% respectively. Kudos to the great research of our student analysts!

Tomorrow’s meeting I will be proposing to sell 20 shares of VDSI which fell 3.86% today. Although it has not failed its most recent breakout I dislike the volatility of the tech sector and this holding in particular. I am proposing to take the money freed up by this transaction and using it to purchase additional shares of ITC. This electric utility company is in a great position to continue to fare well for us regardless of whether or not we see a “flight to quality.” Depending on how earnings season plays out, this could be a very likely scenario.

Going forward I expect our fund to shift our asset allocation to an overweight in Healthcare and Financials, while slowly easing out of our current overweight in tech.

Happy trading for now and see you at Investor’s Paradise!

Atkins Investment Group - Wildcat Fund

2007-01-22T23:04:00.000-05:00

Welcome to the official blog of the Atkins Investment Group. Here you will find stock market commentary by Robert Walczak, the portfolio manager of the Wildcat Fund. Robert will be posting his thoughts on the equity markets and frequently commenting on the financial performance of the Wildcat Fund.

The Atkins Investment Group is a student run organization at the Whittemore School of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire. The group is currently comprised of roughly fifty student analysts who strive to establish and maintain a successful investment portfolio as a management team. Founded in the fall of 2004, the Atkins Investment Group provides an excellent opportunity for students to enhance their business education through an understanding of the dynamics of asset management

The official website of the Atkins Investment Group should be up and running some time soon so stay tuned!